煙草在線據(jù)星報在線報道編譯　　據(jù)分析人士和煙草業(yè)觀察家認(rèn)為，馬來西亞實施的管制非法卷煙買賣的新法規(guī)預(yù)計不會對當(dāng)?shù)責(zé)煵莨镜氖找娈a(chǎn)生任何實質(zhì)性的影響。

　　據(jù)艾芬（Affin）投資銀行的一份研究報告說，截至2013年年底，馬來西亞的非法卷煙貿(mào)易水平維持在34.5%，相比之下，2002年的非法卷煙水平為20%。

　　“造成非法貿(mào)易活動猖獗的主要原因，是多年來卷煙價格因消費稅上提而上漲的緣故?！?/p>

　　艾芬投資銀行說：“由于煙草公司管理部門即將更新涉及這一新法規(guī)行動的成功情況的信息，因此，我們對預(yù)期暫時保持不變?！彼€補充說，它暫時保持對煙草業(yè)做出的“減持”評級。

　　根據(jù)《1983年食品法案》對《2004年煙草產(chǎn)品控制法規(guī)》進(jìn)行的修正案于1月1日開始生效。該修正案規(guī)定，不僅出售煙盒不帶政府規(guī)定的健康警語和圖片的卷煙是非法行為，而且購買這樣的卷煙也屬非法行為。

　　根據(jù)去年6月通過政府公報發(fā)布的修正案，購買這樣的卷煙的人就像出售這些卷煙的人一樣，可能面臨最高10000林吉特的罰款，或高達(dá)兩年的監(jiān)禁，或者罰款和監(jiān)禁并罰。

　　新的規(guī)定旨在控制非法卷煙走私進(jìn)入馬來西亞。

　　與此同時，RHB研究院說，盡管這是一項嘗試遏制非法卷煙貿(mào)易的積極措施，但鑒于法規(guī)的執(zhí)行力度不夠，估計這個問題還會繼續(xù)存在。

　　“最近合法卷煙價格的大幅上漲（14%至17%之間），也無助于這種情況。我們預(yù)計2014年煙草業(yè)的合法卷煙銷量同比將萎縮10%?！?/p>

　　一名來自由馬來西亞當(dāng)?shù)氐囊患毅y行支持的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司的分析師說，除了法規(guī)沒有得到正常執(zhí)行之外，最近的各種補貼合理化行動可能也會進(jìn)一步增加非法卷煙貿(mào)易。

　　“電、燃料和糖等生產(chǎn)成本費用的增加，將會對中低收入人群產(chǎn)生最大影響，而這些人群也是非法卷煙銷售者所瞄準(zhǔn)的最大人群。”

　　曾經(jīng)擔(dān)任馬來西亞煙草控制委員會主席的檳城（Penang）消費者保護(hù)協(xié)會主席K. Koris Atan說，“新法規(guī)”實際上已經(jīng)實施一段時間了，但它無助于遏制非法卷煙貿(mào)易的問題。

　　“這些新法規(guī)已經(jīng)作為《食品法案》的組成部分存在很多年了，而且到今天仍在實施，但我們的司法機關(guān)從來沒有根據(jù)法案對任何違法者處以罰款！”

Malaysia: New Rules Not Expected to Affect Earnings of Local Tobacco Companies

　　The new rules governing the buying and selling of illicit cigarettes in the country is not expected to have any material impact on the earnings of local tobacco companies, according to analysts and industry observers.

　　According to a research note by Affin Investment Bank, Malaysia's illicit cigarette trade level stood at 34.5% as at end-2013 compared with 20% in 2002.

　　"The key culprit for the rampant illegal activities was due to an increase in cigarette prices over the years as a result of higher excise duties.

　　"We leave our forecast unchanged for now pending updates from management of the tobacco companies relating to the success of this initiative," said Affin, adding that it was maintaining its "underweight" rating on the tobacco sector for now.

　　Amendments to the Control of Tobacco Product Regulations 2004 under the Food Act 1983, which took effect on Jan 1, stipulate that it is not only illegal to sell cigarettes in packets that do not carry government health warnings and pictures, it is also illegal to buy them.

　　Under the amendments gazetted last June, the buyer, just like the seller, may face a maximum fine of RM10,000, jail of up to two years, or both.

　　The new provisions are aimed at checking smuggling of illegal cigarettes into the country.

　　RHB Research Institute meanwhile said although this was a positive measure in a attempt to curb illicit cigarette trade, it reckons however that the problem will continue to linger given the lack of the enforcement of regulations.

　　"The recent steep revision in legal cigarette prices (between 14% and 17%) is not helping the situation as well. We are forecasting the industry's sales volume of legal cigarettes to contract by 10% year-on-year in 2014."

　　An analyst from a local bank-backed brokerage said other than the lack of proper enforcement of the regulations, the various subsidy rationalisation initiatives recently will likely elevate illicit cigarette trade further.

　　"The higher cost of living from the electricity, fuel and sugar hikes will have the biggest impact on those within the lower-income group, which is also the biggest segment being targeted by illicit cigarette sellers."

　　Penang Consumer Protection Association president K. Koris Atan, who was the former president of the Malaysia Council for Tobacco Control, says that the "new rules" have actually been in place for some time and has not helped to curb the illicit cigarette trade problem.

　　"It's been part of the Food Act for umpteen years and till today, our judiciary has yet to fine anyone under the act!" Enditem